Tournament Bound?

NCAA? NIT? Big East? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller...?

The boys over at The Fieldhouse recently did a good story on what--if any--are the Irish' prospects for making a postseason tournament. Some pundits and pollyannas still believe that a strong end-of-season run, coupled with so many close losses to Top 25 teams, could, in fact find the Irish in the mix for the NCAA Tournament.

Yes, the Irish have lost a ridiculous number of close games, mostly in the Big East. And, yes, a number of decisions by Mike Brey seemed to have contributed to those losses (burning TOs too early, not playing aggressively on offense, not playing...on defense).

Yet when one looks at the teams they have lost to--six teams from the Top 25, and a handful more in the top 50. Man for man, the Irish are not better than these teams--they should lose to them.

To put the numbers into perspective, consider the following breakdown of the current AP Top 10:

KEY:
MOV = Margin of victory against Top 25
AMOV = Avg. margin of victory against Top 25
MOD = Margin of defeat against Top 25
AMOD = Avg. margin of defeat against Top 25
LVUT = Losses vs. unranked teams

A few numbers jump out. First, with regards to playing the best teams in the country, ND plays as tough a schedule as anyone, in part due to a very strong conference slate. In a similar vein, Memphis (4), George Washington (2), Illinois (3) and, most notably, Florida (1) have racked up wins against much lesser competition. On the negative side, ND's lossed to unranked teams (6) is the most of any team listed.

Next, here are the numbers when sorted by the Average Margin of Victory against the Top 25. Put another way, how well did each team fare in their wins against top competition?

The takeaway here is that ND's "wins" against the Top 25 have been by a margin commensurate with other teams ranked in the Top 10. However, the obvious caveat is that the Irish have only enjoyed one Top 25 victory in six attempts.

Still, the average puts them in good company with the likes of Gonzaga, Pitt and UConn, while--at least numerically--giving them an edge above Texas and Florida.

Lastly the coup de grace: the numbers when sorted by the Average Margin of Defeat against the Top 25:

As has been well-documented over the course of the season, this year's Irish edition has lost an inordinate number of close games, against both ranked and unranked opponents. Only once this season have the Irish lost by more than 10 (NCSU 61, ND 48), and their eleven losses have been by an average of 4.4pts, with an amazing 8 losses by 4 points or less.

So is it a simply an issue that this year's squad--albeit, poorly coached--is not that good?

The sad conclusion is, yes. But even sadder is the fact that a few lucky bounces, and perhaps some better coaching decisions, and this team very easily could be as near-perfect as 22-2.